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EDC Weekly Commentary by Stephen Poloz

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Export Development Canada's Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Stephen Poloz comments on world economic trends.


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Where will the credit crunch end? - November 19, 2008
There have been many predictions about where the credit crunch would end, all of which have proven to be overly optimistic. Today, the honest answers range from "It depends" to "I don't know"....

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[ Wed, 19 November 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


China’s Imported Downturn - November 12, 2008
Just when we thought we were running out of superlatives to describe it, China’s economy has hit a snag. Growth has slowed sharply, silencing all who proclaimed China’s immunity to the global slowdown mere months ago. Many inside this modern economic sensation have experienced little of the dynamics of slowdown and decline, but they soon will. This one is just beginning. ...

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[ Wed, 12 November 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


The Stalwart Greenback - November 05, 2008
Up’ isn’t a word that describes much in the American economy at the moment. Housing is down, the stock market is down, liquidity is down, and more recently, national output itself is down. And in a rapid reversal, even inflation is down. So why is the U.S. dollar currently on a big tear? ...

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[ Wed, 05 November 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Weathering the Weather - October 29, 2008
Looking out the window isn’t much fun these days. It’s mighty stormy in the global economy, and every day seems a bit wilder. Getting a read on any storm is always tough at ground zero. But even the satellite scan is hard to interpret in today’s super-storm. What does the forecast call for? ...

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[ Wed, 29 October 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Restoring Confidence is Key - October 22, 2008
News media must be ecstatic. In recent weeks, hardly a day has gone by but some major new event has hit the street. Bailouts, bankruptcies, stock market volatility and commodity prices in freefall have almost become commonplace, spurring a frenzied search for superlatives that adequately capture the unfolding story. What are we to make of the financial sector mayhem? ...

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[ Wed, 22 October 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


New Vehicle Platforms Buffer Hard Times - October 15, 2008
In any economic slowdown, big-ticket purchases are the first target of penny-pinching consumers. Auto producers know this well, and are feeling the squeeze. Sales are down sharply in the US, by far the world’s largest auto market, raising serious questions about the industry’s prospects. ...

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[ Wed, 15 October 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Japan’s Moment in the Sun - October 08, 2008
A few weeks ago, the prognosis for Japan’s economy was not good – most analysts were convinced the nation was already in recession. But investors have swiftly turned bullish on the economy, and the yen has surged by 6% in the past few days. Is Japan suddenly a good bet? ...

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[ Wed, 08 October 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Is China set for a post-Olympic pause? - August 6, 2008
With just a day to go, all eyes are on Beijing as the world anticipates the 29th modern Olympiad. Excitement over these Games has steadily built, and meticulous preparations mark a thrilling coming of age for the Chinese economy. Billions have been spent on the event, prompting some to predict a post-party recoil. Are these just party poopers, or does the view have some merit?...

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[ Wed, 06 August 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Forecasters are sharpening their pencils - July 30, 2008
It is the forecaster’s prerogative to revise the outlook. And whether it’s the weather, a flight arrival or the economy, the closer we are to the event, the clearer the forecast becomes. Recent turmoil has prompted sizable changes to the near-term economic outlook. What are pundits now saying?...

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[ Wed, 30 July 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Has the Celtic tiger been tamed? - July 23, 2008
The Irish renaissance is one of the most dramatic economic transformations of our time. Growth has been on an uninterrupted tear for over two decades, making Ireland the envy of Western economies. But things have recently taken a dramatic turn for the worse. Is this a fleeting development, or is the Celtic tiger in serious trouble?...

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[ Wed, 23 July 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Exporter jitters deepen - July 16, 2008
For most Canadian exporters, 2008 will be a year of red ink. Few exporting industries are exempt from the recession currently hitting the trade sector, which is weighing heavily on overall economic growth this year. Getting out of this predicament depends on a lot of factors, not the least of which is the fear factor. How are Canadian exporters feeling about their prospects?...

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[ Wed, 16 July 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Housing not just a US problem - July 9, 2008
Almost two years old and counting, the US housing market crash is still grabbing headlines. It’s no wonder, given the dramatic plunge, its secondary effects and scant signs of recovery. But the US isn’t alone anymore. Housing markets are now faltering in other key economies....

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[ Wed, 09 July 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Who’s bucking Canada’s export recession? - July 2, 2008
Open any Canadian newspaper these days, and you are likely to hear about layoffs, shutdowns, and other gloomy pronouncements among Canada’s exporters. Energy exporters and parts of the agri-food sector are largely exempt from this talk. Most other industries are struggling, thanks to slower demand and a high currency. But some in these stressed sectors are bucking the trend....

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[ Wed, 02 July 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Plenty of incentive to speculate - June 25, 2008
One of the marvels of recent economic developments is the surge in commodity prices. It wasn’t anticipated, but it has persisted, and the debate about its causes rages on. Two key views have emerged: on one side, those who feel it’s mostly about supply and demand fundamentals, and on the other, those who see a heavy speculative element. Does the latter side have a point?...

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[ Wed, 25 June 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


It's Been A Pleasure - June 18, 2008
It's been seven and a half years since I began writing these weekly commentaries. That's a lot of articles. A perusal of the archives serves as a nice reminder of the wide range of issues that have preoccupied us in these volatile times....

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[ Wed, 18 June 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


The Diversification Dividend - October 01, 2008
Everybody knows that Canada is a trading nation. Compare the share of trade to total economic output, and Canada ranks close to the top among large industrialized economies. But take away trade with our number one customer, the U.S. economy, and we’re not much of a trading nation at all. In fact, we are really a North American economy, with a limited stake in the rest of the world. What would Canadian trade activity look like if we were truly a diversified trading nation? ...

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[ Wed, 01 October 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


South Africa – No Decoupling Here - September 24, 2008
It wasn't supposed to be this way. Sure, by mid-2007 everyone was expecting the U.S. economy to slow. But commodity producers like South Africa were supposed to be immune - the so-called "decoupling" hypothesis. ...

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[ Wed, 24 September 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Plugging-In to Private Sector Power - September 17, 2008
Energy security led the agenda at last week's XVIII Economic Forum of Central Europe, held in Krynica, Poland. Interest in the topic is not new, but the rise in energy costs over the past year has injected a new sense of urgency into the dialogue. ...

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[ Wed, 17 September 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Sharing Brazil’s Success - September 10, 2008
No discussion of the world’s potential economic powerhouses is complete without mention of Brazil. Recent exciting changes are enabling Brazil to harness that potential more effectively, and the world’s economies are lining up for a piece of the action. Is Canada among the eager suitors?...

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[ Wed, 10 September 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


When the Ships are Down - September 3, 2008
Shipping has been a great barometer of the recent explosion of trade across the planet. Ocean-going carriers have been pushed close to the limit to accommodate vastly increased traffic. But the economic seas have become more stormy, and the shipping industry is feeling the effects....

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[ Wed, 3 September 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Inflation’s Great Disappearing Act - August 27, 2008
It’s the last thing anyone would expect when we’re all bracing for slowdown. But surging food and energy prices put inflation high on the list of economic worries earlier this year. World prices for food and energy have since slipped back, but inflation fears remain. Will those fears dissipate? ...

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[ Wed, 27 August 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Weakness from within in South Korea - August 20, 2008
The story is getting all too familiar: yet another economy joining the ranks of those succumbing to the slowdown that began in the large economies. Scoping the reach of the slowdown has turned a lot of attention to bellwether trading economies in the Asia-Pacific zone. In this context, recent softening in South Korea shouldn’t be surprising – is it just a rerun of the unfolding global story?...

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[ Wed, 20 August 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Is copper feeling a bit green these days? - August 13, 2008
Metals making the headlines at the moment are bronze, silver and gold. As awards, these metals are a standout. But none of them did particularly well in economics class. That honour goes to copper, the metal that didn’t just excel, but earned a PhD. Over the years, it has tracked movements in the global economy well. What is it telling us now?...

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[ Wed, 13 August 2008 17:00:00 EST ]


Will the new stagflation persist? - June 11, 2008
Central banks around the world have shifted their collective focus in recent weeks. Those who have been most aggressive in lowering interest rates have gone on hold. Those more hesitant to ease in the first place have tightened their rhetoric. At the core of these moves is a renewed concern about inflation pressures. But if the global economy is slowing, why the inflation fears?...

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[ Wed, 11 June 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


The Southern Cone’s New Deficit - June 4, 2008
At roughly 5% annually, world GDP growth from 2004-07 was well above its speed limit. This put a lot of pressure on the planet’s resources, and tested the limits of existing infrastructure – particularly in emerging markets. The Southern Cone is no exception, facing critical constraints in energy infrastructure. Will the region’s growing energy deficit constrict near-term growth?...

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[ Wed, 04 June 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


Prairie exports buck the trend - May 21, 2008
Canada’s exports are in recession this year, putting a tight squeeze on the economy. But not all exporters are sharing the pain. While many are seeing double-digit declines in orders, certain others can barely keep up with demand. These contrasts have a strong regional slant that has led to a quick rolereversal, turning “have” provinces into have-not’s, and vice versa. Will it last?...

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[ Wed, 28 May 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


Remembering the Victorian Depression - May 14, 2008
The credit crunch is now in its ninth month, prompting some to ask whether the U.S. could enter a period of Japanese-style deflation or another 1930’s-style depression as a consequence. The general feeling is that an astute and fast-acting Federal Reserve can prevent such an outcome. Nevertheless, it is worth thinking about past episodes for insights into the current situation....

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[ Wed, 21 May 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


Rainy Day Savings Darken US Outlook - May 07, 2008
The sun has shone steadily on the US economy for well over a decade– long enough that many forgot about rainy days. And with the memory lapse, saving for a rainy day became a long-lost practice. But the rain has begun to fall, and a prolonged wet spell is forecast. With savings rates perilously low, US consumers may suddenly get frugal. The consequences would begrim....

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[ Wed, 14 May 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


Two-Speed Global Economy Explains a Lot - April 30, 2008
The world economy today is a study in contrasts– slow growth here, overly rapid growth there, inflation pressures and rising interest rates in some quarters and central banks slashing rates in others. This duality is clear within some countries, too, including Canada, and explains a lot....

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[ Wed, 07 May 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]


Now what? - April 23, 2008
Markets have been in denial for awhile, but no more– the global slowdown has arrived. The successive releases of new and gloomier data, and new revelations of excessive spending and investment, and the like, are all the stuff of downturn economics. The mood has rapidly changed from whether, to when and how deep the slowdown will be. Everyone is asking, “Now what?”...

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[ Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:00:00 -0500 ]

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