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Weekly Economic Update

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Language: English
Category: News and Politics / Unknown
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The weekly national economic update reviews the past week's economic and financial events and provides a general economic forecast along with a consensus view of the upcoming economic reports.

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Week of August 11, 2008

4-year degree or higher...

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[ Mon, 11 Aug 2008 12:00:00 GMT ]

Week of August 4, 2008

Reports last week about the economy remained negative except for a few bright spots. Consumer confidence continued to fall as it nears 1992's all-time low mark. After weeks of decline, the price per barrel of crude oil rose $4 midweek as summer travelers stayed on the road and cut into America's already low gas supply level. Unemployment continued to increase as 51,000 jobs were cut in July; many analysts agreed this declining trend in employment is further proof the United States is in a rec...

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[ Mon, 04 Aug 2008 08:45:00 GMT ]

Week of July 28, 2008

The few reports released last week continue to point to weak or declining economic activity. Leading indicators and housing activity declined while initial unemployment claims rose. The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" found that "the pace of economic activity slowed somewhat from the last report." On the positive side, orders for durable goods rose more than expected. Investors do not expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the federal funds rate target at their August 5 meeting...

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[ Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 21, 2008

Continued slow or contracting growth as well as accelerating inflation characterized last week's reports. Initial unemployment claims moved back up after a significant drop in the previous week and retail sales barely grew in June after growth in May was hailed as a successful stimulus program. Industrial production grew faster-than-expected in June mainly because of strong growth in utilities and mining while manufacturing saw little growth. Housing starts also advanced because of a sharp jump...

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[ Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 14, 2008

The few reports released last week point to some improvement in the economy, but news from the financial industry continues to suggest the problems are far from over. On the positive side, initial unemployment claims dropped for the week ending with July 5 and the trade deficit narrowed. The price of oil was volatile during the week but finally ended Friday at $143.25 a barrel--down 1.4% from the previous week. Perhaps the biggest news came on Friday when mortgage lender IndyMac Bank was taken ...

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[ Mon, 14 Jul 2008 12:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 7, 2008

Positive news was difficult to find last week. The outlook of the labor market worsened as nonfarm employment fell in June for the sixth straight month and initial unemployment claims jumped above 400,000 for the week of June 28 for only the second time since June 28. Other economic reports showed spending on construction fell in May for the eleventh time in twelve months, and purchases of domestic light vehicles dropped below 10 million units at annualized rate in June for the first time since ...

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[ Mon, 07 Jul 2008 12:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 30, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate target at 2.00% citing softer labor markets, stressed financial markets, tighter credit conditions, and higher energy prices as reasons not to raise rates despite concerns about inflation. In the financial markets, the three major stock indices plunged and oil prices rose above $140 leading analysts to warn that a bear market is close at hand. While news from the financial markets was abysmal, economic reports were mixed. Negat...

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[ Mon, 30 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 23, 2008

Last week's economic reports were mostly negative. The housing market resumed a downward trend in May as both building permits and housing starts fell after posting increases the previous month. The industrial sector was also lackluster as the percentage change from a year ago in production declined in May for only the second time since recovering from the last recession while capacity utilization dropped to the lowest level since December 2004. On the inflation front, the producer price index a...

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[ Mon, 23 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 16, 2008

The financial markets provided some positive news last week as oil prices fell 2.7% to $134.74 a barrel due, in part, to comments by the Saudi Arabian Prime Minister that current prices were "unjustified." The dollar gained against the yen and euro on speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise rates to curb inflation. In economic reports, retail sales advanced the most in six months as federal stimulus checks apparently were spent by consumers and the trade balance wid...

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[ Mon, 16 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 9, 2008

The stock markets tumbled last week on financial sector troubles, surging oil prices, and a worse-than-expected employment report. Oil prices shot up 8.5% to a crippling $138.47 per barrel. In addition, market were reeling on troubling financial sector headlines such as debt rating downgrades to three big securities companies and Wachovia as well as the possibility that Lehman Brothers needs to raise $4 billion in additional capital. The May employment report fanned the flames by showing a loss...

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[ Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 19, 2008

Reports last week were mixed. On the positive side, the housing market improved (starts and building permits rose) and the consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI moderated. On the negative side, consumers continued to cut back on spending causing retail sales to edge down 0.2%. The industrial sector suffered with production slowing to its lowest year-over-year pace in more than four years and capacity utilization fell to the lowest level in over two years. While economic reports were mixed, the...

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[ Mon, 19 May 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 12th, 2008

Last week's reports provide evidence of a stagnant economy. The trade deficit narrowed by $3.5 billion due largely to the largest drop in imports (-$6.1 billion) since at least 1992. Despite the positive implications of a narrowing deficit on real GDP, the large drop in imports suggests tighter budgets of domestic consumers and businesses. News from the financial markets was also negative as all three major stock indices fell and oil prices set yet another all-time high of $126.19 per barrel. On...

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[ Mon, 12 May 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 5th, 2008

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate target 25 basis points to 2.00% at their April 29/30 meeting as many analysts expected. The Fed cited "subdued" consumer spending, softening labor markets, and stressed financial markets as the basis for the cut. They also noted that inflation, which was elevated due to higher oil and commodity prices, should moderate in the months ahead. Real gross domestic product (GDP) and employment were the most important economic reports re...

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[ Mon, 05 May 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 28th, 2008

Few economic reports were released last week, giving investors and the financial markets a quick breather and time to prepare for a horde of reports set to be released this week including real gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Last week's reports were mixed as initial unemployment claims improved, but home sales and durable goods orders dropped. Stock markets ended the week higher and the dollar improved against the euro while oil prices set yet another record high, ending the week at...

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[ Mon, 28 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 21, 2008

The bevy of reports released last week along with surging financial markets, provided a few positive signals among otherwise negative news. Oil and gas prices continue to strain the consumer's budget as indicated by the jump in sales at gasoline stations which boosted overall retail sales in March. Additionally, both consumer and producer price indices increased at a faster pace than their core counterparts in March because of rising energy costs. The detrimental effect of energy prices may be e...

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[ Mon, 21 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 14, 2008

Reports released last week gave only slight support for an economy in turmoil, but evidence could be found elsewhere. General Electric (GE), often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, was unexpectedly forced to cut its earnings forecast last Friday citing recent market turmoil and the Bear Stearns situation as reasons for the cut. When news of this reached investors, the price of GE stock plummeted as much as 13%, wiping out $46 billion in market value. Additionally, the March 19 m...

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[ Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 7th, 2008

The latest reports add more evidence that a recession started in January. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 80,000 in March for the third straight decline and initial unemployment claims jumped 38,000 for the week of March 29 to a year and a half high. News was not much better for the nation's goods producers as both construction spending and factory orders fell in February. The one positive report released last week showed that the ISM index increased 0.3 points to 48.6, though still below 50 which sig...

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[ Mon, 07 Apr 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 31, 2008

The reports released last week provide further evidence that the economy is slowing and may likely dip into recession if one is not already underway. Consumer confidence fell 11.9 points in March with the 'present situation' component falling to a four-year low and the 'expectations' component dropping to a level not experienced since the Nixon administration. Consumer spending, which makes up almost two-thirds of real gross domestic product, showed no real growth in February and slowed to a yea...

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[ Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 17, 2008

Although the latest economic reports continue to fuel recession worries, additional signs that the sub-prime mortgage debacle is far from over drove stock prices down and recession worries up. The Federal Reserve's announcement on Tuesday that it would lend Treasuries in exchange for debt that includes mortgage-backed securities drove the biggest rally the stock market has seen in five years. The next day, however, investors' worries that the Fed plan would not work pushed stock prices back dow...

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[ Mon, 17 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

March 10, 2008

The latest batch of reports produced more signs that the economy might be slipping into recession. Nonfarm payroll employment fell by a larger-than-expected 63,000 in February for the second straight monthly decline. Factory orders fell in January and the ISM Index is pointing to another drop in the manufacturing sector in February. The ISM nonmanufacturing index was not as low as in January, but remained below 50 in February—an indication of contraction in the services sector. The Federal Res...

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[ Mon, 10 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

March 3, 2008

The latest economic news caused an increased number of investors to believe the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate target by 75 basis points (bps) when they meet in mid-March. New and existing homes sales fell in January and the inventory of homes on the market continued to rise. Real consumer spending in January stalled even though income continued to grow at a moderate year-over-year pace. Consumer confidence for February plunged to a level below the 2001 recession; and durable...

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[ Mon, 03 Mar 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

February 22, 2008

Economic news tilted toward the negative side last week. Housing starts inched up but the more forward-looking building permits fell 3% in January. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined for the week of February 16 but the four-week moving average jumped to 361,000—the highest level since Hurricane Katrina in October 2005. The Conference Board's leading index fell for the fourth straight week; and with its six-month growth rate dropping by more than 2%, this index is now warning of recess...

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[ Fri, 22 Feb 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

February 18, 2008

Most reports released last week were better than expected but a deeper look shows some weakness. Retail sales were expected to remain flat but rose 0.3% in January, in part, because of higher gasoline prices. Industrial production inched up 0.1% because of a strong 2.2% gain in output at utilities in January. In contrast, manufacturing output was unchanged and mining dropped off. Initial unemployment claims fell for the third straight week in a sign that labor markets might be improving, and th...

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[ Mon, 18 Feb 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of February 4, 2008

Last week's reports were predominantly negative. Nonfarm employment contracted by 17,000 in January and the length of the workweek slipped lower. The unemployment rate, however, inched down to 4.7% in January from 5.0% in December. After several weeks of surprisingly lower initial unemployment claims, a 69,000 jump for the week of January 26 puts the level of claims more in line with a contracting economy. Although fourth quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a much lower-than-ex...

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[ Mon, 04 Feb 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of January 21, 2008

Stock market indices continued to fall last week after worse-than-expected retail sales and housing reports. Retail sales fell 0.4% in December and housing starts plunged 14.2% in December to its lowest point in 17 years. Permits dropped to a 15-year low. Industrial production held steady but is decelerating on an annualized basis. The Conference Board's leading index is not yet sounding the recession warning but the declines in the components that make up the index are becoming more broad-based...

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[ Mon, 21 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of January 14, 2007

Economic reports were mixed again last week while the major stock market indices fell for the third straight week and the S&P 500 recorded its weakest start to a year since 1982, which was a recession year. The international trade deficit widened largely because higher oil prices drove imports much higher. On the positive side, exports continued to rise to new record levels. Initial unemployment claims provided good news with a 15,000 drop in claims for the first week of January. On the inflat...

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[ Mon, 14 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of December 24, 2007

Someone forgot to tell the consumers that they are not supposed to spend during a recession! The 1.1% jump in consumer spending in November (a 2-year high) provides some evidence that the economy is not slipping into recession. Of course, the housing sector is a different story. Starts fell 3.7% in November but remain slightly above the September low. Permits, which generally lead starts, fell 1.5% to a new 14-year low. Recession is coming soon according to the Conference Board's leading index ...

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[ Mon, 24 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of December 17, 2007

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points last week to 4.25%. Unimpressed investors sold off stocks and drove all three major indexes down last week with concerns that the Federal Reserve is not doing enough to keep the economy out of recession. Many analysts and the media are stoking the recession fears despite the lack of evidence outside of the housing sector. Retail sales grew at twice the pace expected by economists in November, the t...

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[ Mon, 17 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of December 10, 2007

Investors are anxiously awaiting the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which will be released on Tuesday. In recent weeks, Federal Reserve officials have backed off their earlier statements that further target rate cuts are unlikely, which has led to speculation that the target rate may be cut by half a point. The last major report before the FOMC meeting, nonfarm payrolls, was released Friday and showed moderate growth, which some economists believe will make a quarter-point ...

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[ Mon, 10 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of December 3, 2007

Real gross domestic product grew at the fastest pace in four years in the third quarter and core inflation remains under control, but consumers are the least confident they have been about the economy since hurricane Katrina. The decline in the housing market has not shown consistent signs of leveling off and construction spending is falling as a result. Personal spending was slightly weaker than expected, but it remains to be seen whether the retail holiday season will be disappointing as some ...

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[ Mon, 03 Dec 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

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