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Weekly Economic Update

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Language: English
Category: News and Politics / Unknown
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The weekly national economic update reviews the past week's economic and financial events and provides a general economic forecast along with a consensus view of the upcoming economic reports.

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Week of August 20, 2007

With a multitude of reports released last week, investors were most likely hoping that strong readings in key economic indicators would avert attention from the credit market and pull the financial markets out of the recent plunge. In the end, it took a 50 basis point cut in the discount rate, the rate at which member banks borrow funds directly from the Fed, to offset some of the large stock market losses early in the week. The Fed justified the move saying that "financial market conditions hav...

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[ Mon, 20 Aug 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of August 13, 2007

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate target at 5.25% at its meeting last week. According to the FOMC press release released after the meeting, "the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected." Several reports last week supported their concern of inflation only one week after a positive reading on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of i...

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[ Mon, 13 Aug 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of August 6, 2007

Growth in core inflation slowed to a pace within the Fed's comfort zone of 1-2% in June. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, grew at an annual pace of 1.9% in June giving the Fed some leeway to relax their restrictive monetary policy. In addition to the slower pace of inflation, the consumer confidence index rose to a six-year high because consumers felt better about the current economic situation and were more positive about the futur...

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[ Mon, 06 Aug 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 30, 2007

Reports last week showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an exceptional pace in the second quarter despite a slumping housing market. Real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 3.4% annual pace after only advancing 0.6% in the first quarter. The strong economic growth was coupled with slower inflation as the GDP deflator slowed from 4.2% in the first quarter to 2.7% in the second quarter. The struggling housing market has hampered growth and was illustrated in last week's reports, with ex...

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[ Mon, 30 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 23, 2007

Reports last week were generally positive with consumer and producer prices easing and industrial production growing. Both the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) slowed in June, on a year-over-year basis, to 2.7% and 3.2% respectively because of declining food and energy prices. The core CPI, which is used as a gauge of inflation, eased to 2.2% year-over-year and is near the Fed�s comfort zone of 1-2%. Industrial production grew 0.5% in June with the manufacturing, utility...

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[ Mon, 23 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 16, 2007

Consumers cut back on spending as gas prices rose and the housing recession reduced demand for housing-related items such as building materials, appliances, and furniture. Retail sales plunged 0.9% in June and year-over-year growth slowed to 3.8%. In addition to hampering retail sales, elevated gas prices were also the main contributor to the widening trade deficit. In May, the U.S trade deficit widened $1.3 billion to $60 billion as imports increased due to an increase in domestic spending on o...

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[ Mon, 16 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 9, 2007

Reports released last week pointed toward stronger economic growth. Larger than expected employment gains in June were coupled with significant upward revisions to April and May numbers. Unemployment remains low but hourly earnings have not yet shown signs of increased pressure on labor costs despite the tight labor market. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index posted its fourth gain in five months to reach a 14-month high. The stock market gained around the mid-week holiday, spurred b...

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[ Mon, 09 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of July 2, 2007

A flurry of economic reports was released last week as the2nd quarter came to an end. Despite the unusual number of reports, few strayed far from expectations. The pace of inflation continued its slow downward trend as core personal consumption expenditures fell to within the Federal Reserve�s "comfort zone." Despite the deceleration, inflation risks, rather than slow economic growth, remains the primary concern and will be under close watch. In a sign that growth may soften in coming quarters, ...

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[ Mon, 02 Jul 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 18, 2007

Equities rebounded last week after a spike in the 10-year Treasury caused the largest decline in stock prices since March two weeks ago. Last week�s gains were attributed to positive economic data, the consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales in particular. Core CPI increased less than expected, while retail sales growth helped relieve concern of an impending plunge in consumer spending. The housing market is showing no signs of improvement as foreclosures reached a new high, following last m...

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[ Mon, 18 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of June 4, 2007

The holiday-shortened week started slow, with most of the economic releases occurring at the end of the week. Real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised downward further than expected to just 0.6% for the first quarter. Analysts are attributing the slow growth to transient factors and expect growth rates above 2.0% for the rest of 2007. Growth in personal income also came in lower than expected in April at -0.1%. Other indicators provided more positive news, as nonfarm payroll growth picked u...

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[ Mon, 04 Jun 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 28, 2007

The small number of economic reports released last week was mixed. In the housing market, new home sales surged 16.2% to 0.981 million units at an annualized rate (MUAR) in April while existing home sales fell 2.6% to 5.990 MUAR for the month. News in the manufacturing sector was positive with durable orders growing at a 4.1% year-over-year rate, the first positive year-over-year pace in seven months. The news in the labor market, however, was negative as initial unemployment claims increased by...

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[ Mon, 28 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 21, 2007

Last week's economic reports showed improved current conditions in several areas of the economy, while the outlook for the future was less positive. The pace of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slowed to a 2.6% year-over-year pace in April while core CPI (excluding food and energy) slowed to a more moderate 2.4% year-over-year pace and inched closer to the Fed's "comfort zone." Housing starts increased to 1.528 million units at an annualized rate (MUAR) suggesting improv...

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[ Mon, 21 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 14, 2007

Reports last week suggest that U.S. producers and consumers are feeling the effects of higher energy prices. Retail sales growth slowed to a 3.2% year-over-year pace in April while gas stations experienced the fastest growth among all sectors for the month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) advanced 0.7% in April as wholesale energy prices grew 3.4% for the month. The effect of higher oil prices was also apparent in the trade deficit which increased by $6 billion because imports of oil increased du...

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[ Mon, 14 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of May 7, 2007

Last week's reports showed that the labor market weakened, while other news in the manufacturing industry was positive. Factory orders increased 3.1% in March, and the ISM index rose 3.8 points to 54.7 in April. Nonfarm payrolls were well below expectations only adding 88,000 jobs while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%. Worker productivity also slowed significantly to a 1.7% annualized pace in the first quarter compared to 2.1% in the prior quarter. With slower growth in the labor market, ...

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[ Mon, 07 May 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 30, 2007

The economy continued to expand in the first quarter of 2007, although at a much slower pace than in previous quarters. In the first quarter of 2007, real gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 1.3% annualized rate (advance figure), down from 2.5% growth in the fourth quarter of 2006. As the economy continues to slow, consumer confidence has diminished as well. In April, the consumer confidence index fell 3.9% to 104 as consumers became uneasy of the present situation as well as what lies ah...

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[ Mon, 30 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 23, 2007

Consumer prices increased in March, as oil prices continue an upward trend. The consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.8% from a year ago, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) advanced a more comfortable 2.5% over the past year. Despite increasing prices, retail sales advanced a notable 0.7% for the month. The housing market also improved as both housing starts and building permits rose 0.8%. Industrial activity contracted according to last week's report with industry production falling 0.2% an...

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[ Mon, 23 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 16, 2007

Last week's reports showed the effects of rising energy prices. In March, the producer price index (PPI) advanced 1.0%, as both food and energy prices increased for the month. Meanwhile, the core PPI (excluding food and energy) was unchanged in March. A lower price and volume of crude oil imports led to a slight decline in the trade deficit in February, but petroleum import prices jumped 9.0% in March. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains concerned about inflation, according to t...

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[ Mon, 16 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 9, 2007

Last week's reports showed that the labor market remains strong, but news from the manufacturing sector was mixed. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a strong180,000 in March, following gains of 162,000 and 113,000 in the previous two months. With job growth remaining solid, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.4% in March, matching last October's five-year low. In the manufacturing sector, employment declined for the ninth consecutive month in March, while the ISM index suggested that growth in the s...

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[ Mon, 09 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of April 2, 2007

Last week's reports showed moderate economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2006, and mixed activity in February. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 2.5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised upward from 2.2% in the preliminary report. Both consumer income and spending continue to show better-than-expected gains in February growing at a pace twice the expected growth for the month. Core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, increas...

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[ Mon, 02 Apr 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 26, 2007

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to hold the federal funds rate target at 5.25% at last week�s meeting. In its statement, the Fed noted that, "Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth," dropping the past reference to "additional firming that may be needed" to counteract inflation pressures. Some investors interpreted this statement change as an end to the Fed's tightening bias. As a result, federa...

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[ Mon, 26 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Special Presentation: Time for a recession?

Listen to a Chmura Economic Update special presentation of Dr. Christine Chmura's latest article: Time for a recession? It depends on whom you are listening to....

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[ Tue, 20 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 19, 2007

The consumer and producer price levels rose in February, while consumer spending on retail was weak, according to last week's economic reports. The consumer price index (CPI) advanced 0.4% in February, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2%. At the wholesale level, the producer price index (PPI) jumped 1.3%, and the core PPI rose 0.4% in February. As prices increased, retail sales rose only 0.1% in February. On a more positive note, industrial production advanced 1.0% ...

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[ Mon, 19 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 12, 2007

Last week's economic reports showed that growth in the labor market has moderated but unemployment remains low. In February, nonfarm payrolls expanded by 97,000, the smallest monthly gain in two years. Despite slower overall growth, the service-producing sectors experienced strong job gains in February, while goods-producing sectors contracted for the month. As payrolls increased modestly, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.5% in February. With continued job growth and a decreased unemplo...

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[ Mon, 12 Mar 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

Week of March 5, 2007

The economy continues to expand, although at a slower pace than previously reported. In the fourth quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.2% annualized rate (preliminary figure), revised downward from 3.5% in the advance report. After increasing at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, consumer spending remained healthy in January, as strong income growth helped to spur consumption. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still expected hold the federal funds rate ta...

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[ Mon, 05 Mar 2007 08:00:00 GMT ]

Week of February 27, 2007

Last week's economic reports showed that inflation remains a concern. In January, the consumer price index (CPI) rose a greater-than-expected 0.2%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) advanced 0.3% in January, while year-over-year growth accelerated to 2.7%. The minutes from the January 31 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting show that Committee members still view inflation as the "predominant concern" but that threats for faster inflation should ease over time. Based on the FOMC...

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[ Mon, 26 Feb 2007 08:00:00 GMT ]

Week of February 19, 2007

Last week's economic reports showed weakness in several sectors of the economy. The level of retail sales was unchanged in January, while year-over-year growth continued to slow. In the housing market, the levels of both housing starts and building permits fell in January, although some of the decline can be attributed to cold temperatures. Industrial production dropped for the fourth time in five months in January, and output growth continued to decelerate on a year-over-year basis. The Fed...

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[ Mon, 19Feb 2007 00:00:00 GMT ]

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